The matchup all college basketball fans have been waiting for is finally here and I could not be more excited for this one on Saturday night. These teams have been 2 of the best teams in the sport the entire year with both teams winning their respective conferences in the regular season and only taking two losses during the regular season. Both Michigan and Arizona are very similar teams playing almost identical styles of basketball. Both teams will utilize a multiple big lineup, create transition opportunities, and look to get paint touches every chance they get. On offense, both of these squads run a lot of their offense out of the pick n roll and score very efficiently out of these sets. On defense, both teams play drop coverage with their bigs and will funnel teams inside where they have shot blockers waiting in the paint. Michigan will look to switch more on defense especially when Morez Johnson is playing the 5 since he is a very capable perimeter defender. One area where Arizona differs is their 3 point rate, ranking 363/365 in 3PA (3 point attempts). Besides that, both these teams are incredibly similar and can score and defend with the best of them.
On offense, Michigan is ranked #5 on KenPom in offensive efficiency led by Elliot Cadeau, Aday Mara, and Yaxel Lendeborg. They run a lot of pick n roll with Cadeau and Mara and will look to get easy 2’s at the rim as they rank 19th nationally in 2pt distance at 4.7 feet. The Wolverines will also look to get out in transition for easy buckets ranking 22nd in tempo. Yaxel is by far the best player on this Michigan team so look for him to have a huge game offensively if the Wolverines want to play on Monday night in Indy, but the key to this game for me is Elliot Cadeau. Against Arizona’s drop coverage, Cadeau will have open looks from 3 and plenty of long 2 point opportunities. If Michigan wants to win, Cadeau needs to step up and be a willing 3 point shooter and knock down 3-4 triples in this contest. We have seen him step up and deliver plenty of times in his career but we have also seen him go cold from deep and shy away from open looks. At 37.7% from deep this year, he has to knock down a couple which will completely open up the Michigan offense. Another reason Cadaeu is so important is that Michigan is without their backup point guard LJ Cason. Michigan ranks bottom third in the country in 2-foul participation so Cadeau needs to stay out of foul trouble in this one for the Wolverines to stand a chance.
The calling card of this Wolverines team is on the defensive end as they are #1 in KenPom in defensive efficiency and #1 in effective FG% on defense. The Michigan defense is anchored by Aday Mara and Morez Johnson both great at shot blocking and rim contests. All year Michigan’s height has been their key on defense but that will be partially negated in this game since Arizona has their own duo of bigs that can score and contest shots at the rim. The key for Michigan on defense will be to eliminate offensive rebounds as Arizona is the 5th ranked offensive rebounding team in the nation.
Arizona’s offense is led by senior Jaden Bradley and freshman Koa Peat who have both been nearly perfect the entire year. Arizona ranks #4 in offensive efficiency and #56 in tempo so look for them to get out in transition and run. As I talked about previously, Arizona is great on the offensive glass, if they can grab double digit offensive rebounds in this game they will have a definite advantage in shot volume. The Wildcats want to live in the paint and get easy 2’s with their pick n roll and high-low game with their big men. They rank 363/365 in 3 point attempt rate this season which really hasn’t mattered at all up to now. They are plenty capable of hitting shots from deep they just don’t take many and want to live in the paint. Look for Jaden Bradley to control the offensive tempo for this game and Anthony Dell’Orso to give them a spark off the bench and knock down a couple outside shots. Look for Dell’Orso or Brayden Burries to lead the charge from deep and if they get hot, look out!
The Wildcats defense is led by Mo Krivas, another 7 footer just like Aday Mara. Krivas can score at will in the paint and erases a majority of opposing team’s shots taken at the rim. On defense, Arizona typically plays straight up and doesn’t switch a whole lot because they have unbelievable perimeter defenders ranking 2nd in defensive efficiency only behind Michigan. Like I stated before, Arizona primarily relies on a heavy dose of drop coverage and funneling everything to the rim where shot blockers wait, ranking 7th in average height.
This game on Saturday night should come down to the very end and will very likely be a bruising battle on the glass and in the paint. The game really comes down to who can stay out of foul trouble, who can eliminate 2nd chance points, and who can hit a couple extra outside shots from deep since both teams are so similar in style. I am holding a Michigan championship future at +1700 from November so I will not be betting this pre-game at all. I will look to see if Michigan can get out to an early lead and jump on Arizona live if the number improves. I would lean to the over in this one with how efficient both offenses have been all year and the tempo each team plays with but no official play for me on the total.
Buckle up for Saturday night as this should be an epic Final 4 matchup.
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