All eyes are on Houston, Texas tomorrow as the Illinois Illini battle the Houston Cougars in a heavyweight battle with a trip to the Elite 8 on the line. In what is a semi-home game for the Cougars, the Illini’s elite offense and the Cougars elite defense will collide. Let’s dive in and see which unit will prevail.
This game is truly a complete clash of styles. Illinois wants to win with efficient, high powered offense while Houston wants to win on the defensive side of the ball by playing suffocating defense and forcing turnovers.
Illinois has been elite on offense all year, ranking #2 in adjusted offensive efficiency (131.6) on KenPom behind only Purdue. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency is points per 100 possessions but also takes into account opposing defense and site of the game to give a rating. The reason this rating is so high is because Illinois does not turn the ball over (#9 in offensive turnover %) and they grab 39.2% of their offensive rebounds leading to more and more possession and opportunities to score for the Ivisic brothers and freshman phenom Keaton Wagler. Houston is very tough on the glass as well, so it will be interesting to see if Houston can limit offensive rebounds or if Illinois can steal a couple buckets in what should be a tight game till the very end.
On defense, expect a pretty clean game from the Illini. They typically do not foul very much and Houston really struggles to get to the line for easy points. Look for Illinois to force Houston to make a lot of tough shots at the rim and in space in this contest as Illinois is the tallest team in the country. We will see if this height advantage can cause problems for the Cougars on the offensive end. One area on defense where the Illini struggle is forcing turnovers, ranking dead last (365 of 365) in forcing turnovers on defense.
For the Cougars, Kelvin Sampson has another team that is absolutely capable of winning a national championship led by Kingston Flemings and Milos Uzan. Besides a 3 game losing streak in February, Houston has been pretty lights out all year. they do struggle at times to score with no dominant post player and can settle for difficult 2 point shots leading to scoring droughts. This is a pretty typical Houston team that we have seen in years past: elite on defense and well above average on the offensive end. This year the Cougars are #4 in defensive efficiency and #10 in offensive efficiency. On offense Houston rarely turns the ball over which doesn’t hold much weight here as the Illini defense can’t turn anyone over but Houston can force turnovers on defense and I can see them facing quite a few from Keaton Wagler as this may be the best defense he has faced all season.
Another interesting thing to watch for in this game is foul trouble for Houston. Kelvin Sampson typically pulls his players out of the game when they get a 2nd foul and rank 329 out of 365 in 2-foul participation. If Illinois is able to get Houston in foul trouble early, it could completely change this game.
Now time for my pick on this game. I will be taking Illinois +3 or better in this match up. Expect a slow, half-court game here with each possession coming at a premium. With each possession being so important, I think the height advantage, ability to generate second chances, and perimeter scoring for the Illini will be enough to keep them in this game all the way to very end. If Houston goes on scoring droughts, gets into early foul trouble, or can’t force turnovers then Illinois will be in the drivers seat for an outright victory. In what should be an exciting high level ball game to the very end, I will gladly take the points with the Illini.
ILLINOIS +3 (or better)
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